25 noviembre, 2018

A FORECASTING FORECAST IN FRONT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE has replaced the ECONOMY as the main concern of the WORLD INSTITUCIONES

Climate Change would cost Peru: 4.4% of its GDP by 2025

  • Last month (October 2018) the Scientific Panel of the United Nations delivered its first report since the Paris climate agreement of 2015.
  • Perhaps the most important observation is that the increase of greenhouse gas emissions have been precipitating climate change, so the panel has advanced the dates of the important consequences of this phenomenon. It seems that by 2040 we will reach the 2 * C of warming that is committed to avoid in the agreement mentioned

Where it

– To give an idea of ​​how little this percentage illustrates the magnitude of the effects, suffice it to say:

… We will have more cold and more frost in Puno: but in the high mountain range, there will be more heat and the glaciers will retreat more.

           Also in the Caribbean the temperature will continue to rise, as well as in the Arctic Sea that will run out of ice.

The report makes some priorities clear. One of them is the urgent need to reduce the consumption of coal, the fuel that contributes most of the carbon dioxide (CO2).

Consequences and deadlines

  • The report, as it is its function, focuses on the future. However, this time it makes a global projection to 2040. For this type of forecast it is a very short term, however:

Floods on the coasts will affect more than 50 million people.

Forest fires will channel further north and further south. There will be a fall in food production.

Blow to the lungs.

Not only the USA (with its coal production), its non-participation in the Paris Agreement. It appears to be indifferent to the threats of climate change. The Amazon, the densest vegetation, is the one that recycles the most CO2, per square meter. The President-elect of Brazil has said that he will convert large areas of the forest into agricultural land where they will grow soybeans, among other agricultural products

Consciousness

  • Unfortunately, change does not have the impact of a meteorite or earthquake, or something that really shakes the earth. It has a cumulative effect that affects mainly the less developed countries and in the First World Countries the poorest
  • However, as climate change affects more people – as it has been happening – at a given moment there should be a better awareness.

SOURCE. Executive summary of the article «A discouraging forecast against climate change» by Tomas Unger of Diario El Comercio.

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